The Big 12 had five teams ranked in the final AP Top 25 poll last season. Only one team made the College Football Playoffs: Texas Tech. They earned a first-round bye as a four-seed, but got blanked by Oregon, 23-0. Zero teams earned an at-large bid. Texas Tech is the favorite to win the Big 12 again and has the highest percentage of making the College Football Playoffs among conference teams. They are not the only team worth worrying about, though. BYU, Utah, Kansas State, Arizona, and Houston have strong cases in the conference, which can turn this season into a free-for-all. We will see if West Virginia comes out of nowhere and makes itself a threat. Read more: Texas Tech is the favorite, but the Big 12’s CFP race is far from settled.
The favorite: Texas Tech
Texas Tech won the conference championship last season, but fell short in the College Football Playoffs. They are the clear favorite to win it again, and they have the best chance to make the CFP field. The catch is that the nation does not respect the Big 12. The Big Ten is the favorite to win the CFP, followed by the SEC, FBS independents, ACC, and then the Big 12. It may play out similarly to last season with the Big 12 getting one team in the postseason, so winning the conference becomes of the utmost importance.
Quarterback Brendan Sorsby was supposed to lead the Red Raiders on offense, but after his whole saga ensued, he is gone. Will Hammond is the expected starting quarterback for Texas Tech, pending his recovery from a torn ACL suffered in October 2025. The rest of the roster is what makes them a strong team.
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They have an experienced offensive line and a duo of running backs. Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams return in the backfield, with Quinten Joyner joining them. Joyner averaged 7.6 yards per carry at USC in 2024 and missed last season with a knee injury. Three of five starters on the offensive line return, and additions in the portal should help sustain success on the ground.
The defense should be the reason for this team’s success, however. They lost two of their top defenders last season, but did so well in the portal that it should not matter. They added depth and talent in the portal, adding some of the most disruptive defenders available. The Red Raiders’ schedule is surprisingly easy on paper, too. They do not play BYU, Utah, or Kansas State, the next three teams in projections.
The chasing pack: BYU, Utah, Kansas State
BYU returns quarterback Bear Bachmeier, who played at a high level as a true freshman. He threw for 3,033 yards, 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He added 527 rushing yards on 147 carries, including 11 touchdowns. The Cougars also return LJ Martin and four linemen. Martin was voted the Preseason Offensive Player of the Year after earning Player of the Year in 2025. Pass-catchers remain the biggest question mark on this offense.
On defense, BYU lost its defensive coordinator, with Kelly Poppinga taking over. Fortunately, he has an experienced group. The Cougars have 10 defenders with 200-plus snaps returning.
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Utah’s Devon Dampier returns after a stellar 2025 season. He threw for 2,490 yards, 24 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He added 835 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Wayshawn Parker also returned after nearing 1,000 rushing yards last season, but that is it as far as returning players on that side of the ball. They still have some upperclassmen leadership returning, but they do not have many snaps back from 2025. The defense faces some of the same concerns, losing a lot of production. They will have to rely on their transfers to step in and produce.
Kansas State had big-play ability last season, but did not run the ball well. Avery Johnson returns at quarterback under new head coach Collin Klein, who returns to his alma mater. The offensive line faces significant turnover, with many portal additions. The skill positions remain mostly intact, with a few transfers. The defense has many new faces, but that could be a good thing after a less-than-stellar 2025. They also avoid Texas Tech, BYU, and Utah in conference play, so they should play as favorites in most games.
The wildcard: Houston
Houston finished with a 10-3 record last season and returns a lot of production. They return 152 starts from last season, which makes them a true sleeper coming into 2026. Quarterback Conner Weigman returns, along with leading receiver Amare Thomas. The Cougars also added Makhi Hughes, who rushed for nearly 3,000 yards and 22 touchdowns in 2023 and 2024 at Tulane. Head coach Willie Fritz coached at Tulane in 2023 before taking the job at Houston. Their defense did not lose much from last season, and they turned to the portal for only a handful of players.
Where does WVU fit?
West Virginia is near the bottom of the 2026 projections after a 4-8 season in 2025. They added two major transfers on offense: Michael Hawkins Jr. at quarterback and Cam Cook at running back. They also added a few additions on the offensive line from the portal, along with Kevin Brown at tackle, the No. 4 all-time recruit at WVU since 2000.
The defense only returns two defenders with more than 200-plus snaps. Coordinator Zac Alley will once again rely on transfers to produce. The defense is a true question mark, but the offense should be better this season. They may not be in the Big 12 Title conversation yet, but they are building a foundation that could exceed expectations in 2026.
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