Well, that didn’t go according to plan.
West Virgina ended April by taking the one loss it really could not afford: a 7-6 setback against Marshall. No disrespect to the Thundering Herd, but with an RPI outside the top 150, that one hurts the Mountaineers. Even if the Mountaineers had lost to Pittsburgh, the Panthers play ACC teams often enough that their RPI wouldn’t have hurt West Virginia much.
Marshall plays in a top-heavy league in the Sun Belt. Coastal Carolina, Troy and Southern Miss are very good teams. Appalachian State, Georgia State and South Alabama, not so much. There are too many of those teams on the Herd’s schedule, which really hurts West Virginia.
And that means that the last nine league games for West Virginia baseball are now more vital than ever.
Read more: The Last Nine League Games For West Virginia Baseball
Of course, the Pitt game also matters. But now the Mountaineers’ regular season is going to come down to the last nine league games. They’ve got three key series: Texas Tech, Kansas State and Kansas.
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And these are the most critical series of the year, because West Virginia has to prove it can beat good teams. That’s a weird thing to say about a team that’s 37-6, but the strength of schedule has not been there. And if the Mountaineers don’t turn in a good showing, there will be questions at the worst possible time.
Cancellations Hurt the Mountaineers
Three games against Oklahoma State would have changed the equation a bit. West Virginia was supposed to play a full series in Stillwater to open the league schedule, but winds and fires got in the way. That meant West Virginia only played one game, and that played to their strength.
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But while that helped in the short term, it probably hurt in the long term. Pitching depth has been a big strength for the Mountaineers, which is why they have the top ERA in the Big 12. But it’s a 3.66 ERA that comes with questions, because the lineups haven’t been up to par.
Central Florida leads the Big 12 in batting average, but the Knights don’t have a lot of power. Who does? Kansas and Kansas State.
The Jayhawks lead the conference with 85 home runs, and the Wildcats are second with 77. Both teams are in the top 3 in slugging percentage (Kansas 1, Kansas State 3), and both can hit for average. And both are the kinds of teams West Virginia will have to beat in the regionals.
Proving Themselves At the Right Time
The last nine games for West Virginia baseball represent a test. They also represent an opportunity.
The Mountaineers want to be playing their best baseball in May. This program is beyond getting excited about making a regional. The goal is to host a regional and then go out and try to win it. And these three series represent an opportunity to show that the Mountaineers are peaking when it matters.
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Texas Tech is a good icebreaker for West Virginia. It’s a home series, and the Red Raiders don’t have the power or pitching that the Jayhawks or Wildcats possess. That said, Texas Tech will come in desperate.
At 15-26, Texas Tech has to run the table to be eligible for an at-large bid. That’s not a misprint. The Red Raiders’ two-game set with Texas-Rio Grande Valley backfired with two losses. With 12 games to go, anything less than 12-0 would leave Texas Tech with no way to get above .500. So if the Red Raiders don’t sweep, they’ve got to win the Big 12 tournament to have a prayer.
That’s good for West Virginia’s future. Once the Mountaineers get to the NCAA tournament, every team they play will see each game as no tomorrow with a loss. Playing a team with Texas Tech’s desperation can only help them prepare.
Handling a Hostile Environment
The trip to Kansas State is big in multiple ways. The Wildcats will be the best team West Virginia has seen since Arizona. More importantly, Kansas State is excellent in Manhattan. The Wildcats are 16-2 in the Little Apple, and while West Virginia only has two road losses, that’s partially because of the schedule.
With the Oklahoma State series abbreviated, the rest of the road schedule included BYU, Houston and UCF. Those are three of the four weakest teams in the Big 12. Of the top teams, Arizona came to Morgantown, Kansas will end the season there and TCU and Arizona State didn’t face the Mountaineers at all.
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So Kansas State represents the first real test on the road. And that’s big because the Mountaineers need experience in that kind of situation.
Hosting a regional is still possible, but it will be much harder after the loss to Marshall. And hosting a Super Regional is likely off the table unless a No. 3 or No. 4 seed wins the opposite regional to West Virginia’s. So that means to reach Omaha, the Mountaineers will have to go on the road.
Beating K-State two out of three, or even sweeping, would show that West Virginia can handle that kind of pressure. The Wildcats’ dominance at home makes them an ideal test right before the regionals.
Playing With Pressure
The capstone of the last nine league games for West Virginia is the visit from Kansas. Most likely, this will have conference title implications. The Jayhawks have a gaudy record, but also haven’t totally proven themselves. So this will be a pressure situation for both teams.
This is a perfect test right before the Big 12 tournament. The Mountaineers couldn’t ask for much more: a chance to win a league title in Morgantown, against a talented but beatable opponent.
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These three games will give West Virginia a chance to gauge how it plays with pressure. If the Mountaineers handle it well, they’re ready to go for the big time. If they falter, at least Steve Sabins has time to sort things out.
The schedule has mostly set West Virginia up well all season long. Now they have a chance to show that they’ve made the most of it.
