The hope was that West Virginia baseball would open with a mid-major champion. The fear was that the Mountaineers might have to go through both the SEC and the ACC to make the Super Regionals.
The latter became reality on Monday, as West Virginia got assigned to the Clemson Regional as the No. 2 seed. They’ll open against SEC opponent Kentucky, which made the men’s College World Series last season. Host Clemson and South Carolina Upstate make up the other half of the regional, meaning the Mountaineers likely have to go through two teams from the country’s most powerful baseball leagues to advance.
Related: Mountaineers Lose to Wildcats
Should the Mountaineers survive the four-team regional, they’d face the winner of the Baton Rouge Regional. That quarter includes LSU, Little Rock, Dallas Baptist and Rhode Island.
Read more: West Virginia Baseball Sent to Clemson; Opens With Kentucky
The Wildcats Struggled Down the Stretch
Struggling is putting it kindly. Kentucky lost its final eight games away from Lexington. That left the Wildcats wondering if they’d be in the field at all, especially after bid thieves got involved.
But losing eight road games isn’t a deterrent in the SEC. Kentucky’s eight losses included three to Vanderbilt, three to Mississippi State, Western Kentucky and Oklahoma in the SEC tournament. All of those teams made the field as a No. 3 seed or better.
Related: What If West Virginia Baseball Doesn’t Host?
West Virginia is in a similar boat, having lost to Kansas State, Kansas and Arizona. The Mountaineers did lose three to the Jayhawks at home, but that’s not relevant here. West Virginia has been a great road team all season, and Kentucky has not. But again, the Wildcats played a much tougher schedule than the Mountaineers did. Both teams played a mostly soft non-conference schedule, but Kentucky had tournament teams in Murray State and Western Kentucky, plus SEC games to make up for it.
Get Ready to Stop the Run
Logan Sauve is going to be a busy man on Friday. With 122 stolen bases, Kentucky led the SEC in steals this season. Nick Mangione’s team has always been aggressive on the base paths, and Kentucky will run any chance it gets.
Related: What Went Wrong for West Virginia?
What’s less certain is who Kentucky will send to the hill on Friday. Nate Harris was the Friday night starter for the Wildcats, but he has struggled as much as his team over the past few weeks. Over the final three starts of the season, he didn’t make it past the fifth inning. With the first game so critical, Mangione might change up his rotation to try to survive the opener.
West Virginia Will Probably Face a Starter in Game 2
With two power schools in the 2-3 game, Clemson is likely to try to survive USC-Upstate with a bullpen game. Drew Titsworth usually doesn’t last past five innings, but that’s also against ACC competition. Against Pittsburgh, which isn’t a top quality ACC school, Titsworth gave the Tigers six innings before yielding in an 11-2 win.
That means that if the Tigers take down the Spartans, West Virginia will probably see Aidan Knaak. Knaak is a workhorse who is listed as a solid first-round prospect in next year’s MLB draft, as he’s just a sophomore. He’s only failed to complete five innings once in his past 12 starts, and he’s only allowed more than two runs once in seven starts.
If the Mountaineers match up with USC Upstate, they’ll probably face Chris Torres. Amp Phillips is the Spartans’ ace and will almost surely go against Clemson, leaving Torres for Game 2. Torres achieved six quality starts in his final eight trips to the hill, although that came mostly against Big South opponents.
Winning Game 1 is Critical
The Mountaineers probably do not have the pitching to battle back through the loser’s bracket. Griffin Kirn is a reliable ace, but Jack Kartsonas has been hit or miss as the second starter. Thanks to facing Kentucky first, the Mountaineers have no choice but to burn Kirn in Game 1 and hope Kartsonas can give them a chance against Clemson.
This was why the Mountaineers really wanted to either host or face a mid-major opponent first. Had they been facing the likes of USC Upstate or a No. 3 seed like Rhode Island, they could have tried Kartsonas first and saved Kirn for the top opponent. That’s now not possible, and it puts a lot of pressure on the pitching staff.
If the Mountaineers win the first game, they’d guarantee their third opponent has burned its two best pitchers. If they lose Game 1, they’d have to rely on the bullpen when it might be overworked.
Has West Virginia’s Luck Run Out?
This is the danger with scheduling the way the Mountaineers did. They got a No. 2 seed, but they and Northeastern are the only No. 2 seeds that must beat both an ACC and SEC team to reach the Supers. The Huskies couldn’t do anything about their spot as a CAA school. The Mountaineers could but didn’t schedule with seeding in mind.
The narrative around this program started around positives, such as earning 40 wins and a Big 12 championship. And unquestionably, those remain accomplishments to celebrate. But after the sweep by Kansas, the narrative has shifted to their success built on the schedule. The Mountaineers avoided TCU and Arizona State entirely, and the only good opponent they saw before May was Arizona.
Related: West Virginia Baseball Next Steps
Now the Mountaineers have no choice: they have to take down a giant from the ACC and one of the most battle-hardened teams in the country from the SEC. Kentucky doesn’t even have 30 wins to its name, but literally nothing is going to scare the Wildcats after a 31-game SEC gauntlet.
Then you have the Tigers, who won 44 games in the second-best league in the nation. Challenges don’t get much tougher than this in the NCAA tournament. If the Mountaineers are still playing at the end of the regional round, they’ll have earned it.
