Now that the Big 12 tournament is over and Arizona has claimed the crown, it’s time to focus on what really matters: the NCAA tournament.
And for West Virginia fans, the biggest question is simple: what can West Virginia baseball expect from the selection committee?
We know a few things about the Mountaineers’ situation. The hosting dream is officially dead for WVU, and the Mountaineers are likely looking at a No. 2 seed. That means they’ll likely face an opponent who’s within driving distance if Mountaineer fans are willing to spend a day on the road.
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That’s because West Virginia will likely be one of six or seven teams from the Big 12 in the field of 64. It could have been eight if the Mountaineers had lost to Cincinnati, but WVU likely knocked the Bearcats out of the running in the league quarterfinal. Selection rules don’t allow WVU to go to the same regional as a conference foe, and with Arizona now definitely in and Arizona State possible, it’s more likely than not that the Mountaineers will stay in the Eastern Time Zone.
So what can West Virginia baseball expect from the committee? Here’s a look at what’s likely to happen.
Read more: What Can West Virginia Baseball Expect
An SEC Opponent Is Almost Certain
The Strength Everywhere Conference is well known for its football dominance, but it’s even better at baseball. Thirteen out of 16 SEC teams will hear their names called on Monday for the NCAA tournament. Texas A&M would have made it 14, but the Aggies had an even worse finish to the season than West Virginia did.
Think the Mountaineers’ sweep against Kansas was bad? At least the Jayhawks are an NCAA-quality team that took second in the Big 12. Texas A&M got swept at home by Missouri, which entered the series at 0-24 in the SEC before taking three straight in College Station. Missouri then promptly went home and did what it’s done against every other SEC opponent, getting outscored 50-11 by Mississippi State in a three-game romp.
So yeah, the Aggies are (probably) cooked.
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But there are 13 SEC teams who will make it, and West Virginia will almost certainly land with one of them. The question is whether the Mountaineers will face a top seed or a No. 3 seed from the SEC. This probably eliminates Oklahoma, Florida and Alabama from the list of potential foes, as all three are projected to be on the No. 2 line.
That leaves Mississippi State and Kentucky as the only options for WVU to face an SEC team without facing one of the top eight. And given how the brackets will likely shake out, neither seems likely. With several ACC teams on the 2 and 3 line, it’s going to be easier to send one of them to a non-SEC site. There’s technically a 50/50 shot of an SEC site with eight regionals in play, and it seems like it’s mathematically more likely that WVU sees one of those eight teams.
Which SEC opponent is most likely? Fortunately, Vanderbilt and Texas are probably off the table. West Virginia might have fallen that far if it had lost to Cincinnati, but the Mountaineers showed they haven’t slipped that far. They should get one of the mid-tier SEC regional hosts if the committee goes that way.
That would send the Mountaineers to Tennessee, Mississippi, Auburn or Georgia.
Can West Virginia Baseball Expect an ACC Opponent?
It’s starting to look less likely. The ACC got three regional sites in North Carolina, Clemson and Florida State. All of them could be options, but the NCAA would have a hard time making that work unless it sends Mississippi State or Kentucky in there with the Mountaineers.
It’s more likely that the committee will fill two of those regionals with SEC No. 2 seeds, with the third including Northeastern. The Huskies have an RPI of 23, and the committee does not want to create an all-mid major regional by sending them to either Coastal Carolina or Southern Mississippi. That means they’ll need to go to an SEC or ACC site.
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Georgia Tech, Duke, NC State and Wake Forest are probably off the table for the Mountaineers. All should sit on the No. 2 line, and with Nebraska stealing a bid from the Big Ten, Virginia probably isn’t going to make it now.
That leaves Miami and Louisville. Maybe one of those two ends up with the Mountaineers, given that six regions minimum must contain both an SEC and ACC team, but it’s looking unlikely.
Who Can West Virginia Baseball Expect to Play First?
Most likely, the Mountaineers will open with either a bid stealer or one of the last teams in the field. Connecticut, Nebraska or Western Kentucky would make a lot of sense. Any of those teams could travel to the Mountaineers’ site with relative ease. The Huskies will likely be one of the last at-larges, while the Cornhuskers and the Hilltoppers stole a bid by winning their league tournaments.
In either case, Steve Sabins will likely have to throw Griffin Kirn against them. It’s too risky for the Mountaineers to try to save Kirn for the top seed. It’s far from ideal given how the Mountaineers struggled down the stretch, but better to use your ace and win the first game than lose and throw Kirn in an elimination game.
West Virginia Probably Won’t Go to a Sun Belt School
With Coastal Carolina and Southern Mississippi earning hosting spots, Mountaineer fans might be dreaming of one of these matchups. Odds are that it won’t happen.
Here’s why: there are only so many regionals where a No. 2 can come from the SEC or ACC. The Sun Belt schools can take either one without a conflict. Given that there are only three regionals that won’t have an SEC team at all, three regionals west of the Mississippi and 10 schools from the Mountain and Pacific Time Zones that are in for sure, the committee is not going to create a headache by putting a non-SEC or ACC team into one of those two slots.
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If the Mountaineers see the Chanticleers or the Golden Eagles, it would almost certainly be in the Super Regionals or later.
West Virginia Could Go West, But It’s Not Likely
The Mountaineers probably would have had a better chance to avoid the SEC behemoth if TCU had won the Big 12. Had the Frogs beaten Arizona, they’d have had a strong case to host a regional. Obviously, WVU couldn’t have gone there, but it would have knocked TCU out of contention to go west.
Instead, the Frogs will probably be one of the No. 2 seeds going to either Oregon, Oregon State or UCLA, and the same holds for Arizona. The remaining option will probably be UC Irvine, which doesn’t leave room for the Mountaineers to head west.
The No. 4 Seed is a Total Guess
If all goes as expected, the Mountaineers won’t see the No. 4 seed at all. It’s going to be a low-level conference champion, making it pointless to guess. That team will be determined by whichever regional West Virginia goes to and who is closest to it.
So what can West Virginia baseball expect Monday? Most likely, they’re going to either Knoxville or Oxford, and they’re probably facing a winnable first game. It’s not what they wanted a month ago, but it could be a lot worse.
