Now that West Virginia has taken a loss it really couldn’t afford, it’s time to consider the other side of the coin.
Earlier this week, we looked at West Virginia’s chances to host a regional in the NCAA tournament. That’s still possible, but losing to Marshall makes it much harder. The Mountaineers now carry a sub-150 loss in the RPI, and they don’t have enough good wins to offset a setback.
Related: West Virginia Loses to Marshall
This could end up not mattering. West Virginia could blow through Texas Tech, Kansas State and Kansas and get itself on the 1 line. But those teams are good enough that it’s likely that the Mountaineers will take a couple defeats in those last nine games. West Virginia can and should win all three series, but a 6-3 record in those games wouldn’t be a surprise.
But with the loss to Marshall, that might not be enough to sit on the 1 line. So now we have to ask: what happens if West Virginia baseball doesn’t host?
Read more: What If West Virginia Baseball Doesn’t Host?
The Mountaineers Would Get a No. 2 Seed
Unless West Virginia falls apart down the stretch, there’s no scenario where the Mountaineers fall off the 2 line. By fall apart, we mean something like a 2-9 finish to the year. If the Mountaineers are competitive in their final three series, they’ll be one of the top 32 selections.
Related: The Last Nine Games For West Virginia Baseball
But the path is harder for a No. 2 seed than for a No. 1. For starters, if West Virginia falls to the No. 2 line, they’ll face a much tougher first game. Rather than meet a small-conference champion, they’d probably play an at-large team from a power conference.
Depending on who it is, that could make winning the regional very challenging. The No. 3 line currently includes teams like Florida, Duke and Virginia Tech. The Gators and the Blue Devils are both proven programs with a long history of winning in May. Neither would be someone West Virginia would want to see in its bracket, and that’s before they even get to the No. 1 seed.
West Virginia Couldn’t Set Its Rotation Properly
If you’re the No. 1 seed, there are benefits beyond hosting. The biggest is that hosting lets you set up your rotation the way you want it.
That’s because as the top seed, you’ve got what should be the easiest game on the slate. Last year, when I covered the Tallahassee Regional, I saw Florida State take full advantage of this benefit. The Seminoles opened with Stetson, while Alabama and UCF squared off in the other game.
Florida State coach Link Jarrett gambled that he’d get a good game from Carson Dorsey, allowing him to save ace Jamie Arnold for the second game. The strategy worked to perfection. Dorsey gave the Seminoles a fine performance in beating Stetson, Arnold mowed down UCF and the Seminoles were barely scratched in reaching the Supers.
Related: How the WVU Gymnastics Team Turned Its Season Around
Of course, this can backfire. West Virginia learned that to its benefit last year in Tucson. Arizona tried to do exactly what Florida State did by sending Clark Candiotti to the hill against Grand Canyon, saving ace Cam Walty for either the Mountaineers or Dallas Baptist.
If you followed last season, you might remember that the Mountaineers never saw Walty or the Wildcats. That’s because Grand Canyon bested Candiotti, and Dallas Baptist bombed Walty the next day. Arizona went two-and-out, becoming the only No. 1 seed in 2024 to meet that ignominious fate.
But usually, the strategy works. And as a No. 2 seed, West Virginia wouldn’t be able to follow that. Last year, the Mountaineers were a No. 3 and had to use Derek Clark against Dallas Baptist, knowing they wouldn’t have him for Arizona. It obviously worked out, but it’s not the strategy you want to follow in a regional. You want to be able to choose your matchups, not be forced into using your best right away.
Having to Beat Two Aces
When executed properly, that strategy pays dividends for the No. 1 seed in multiple ways. Obviously, there’s saving your best pitcher for the toughest matchup. There’s forcing your opponent to weaken itself by throwing its best pitcher right away.
And there’s the pressure of forcing your toughest opponent to face two aces in a row.
Related: West Virginia Sweeps UCF
Mentally, it’s tough on a hitter knowing that he’s only going to get one or two good swings on consecutive days. Each at-bat means more, especially in a playoff situation. The pressure can become intense, and in a sport that’s already got enough pressure, that weighs on a hitter.
If you’re the No. 2 or No. 3 seed, you’re entering the tournament knowing that you’re going to see another team’s ace right off the bat. And then if the seeds hold, you’re probably going to see a better ace the next day. That’s a hard thing to deal with, especially because the other team doesn’t have that. If you’re going up against someone like Tennessee, with Liam Doyle on the mound and the Vols’ lineup not facing your ace, that’s brutal. And that’s potentially life as a No. 2.
Facing a Battle Tested Top Seed
If West Virginia baseball doesn’t host, the Mountaineers’ geography really hurts here. The NCAA likes to keep teams closer to home if it makes sense to do so. That increases revenue and cuts down on costs, so if they can limit a team’s travel, they will. That means West Virginia’s probably not going to Irvine or Corvallis for a western regional.
And that means the Mountaineers will likely get assigned to one of the 12 to 14 regionals featuring an SEC team. Right now, only South Carolina and Missouri aren’t making it from the SEC. Mississippi State and Texas A&M are bubble teams, and both have plenty of experience.
Related: West Virginia Baseball Future Steps
That’s only half the equation. The other half is likely someone from the ACC. And if the Mountaineers land on the 2 line, they’ll likely have a top team from one and a No. 3 team from the other. That’s a pretty daunting task.
Getting to the 1 line would both lessen the chance of seeing both conferences and ensure that they play each other on Day 1. That would make the task much easier, as would watching both of them burn their ace on Day 1.
Related: JJ Quinerly Introduced in Dallas
If the Mountaineers do slide to the No. 2 line, the dream destination would probably be Raleigh. N.C. State is surging, but the Wolfpack wouldn’t attract a top SEC opponent on the No. 3 line. Current projections have them seeing Northeastern as a No. 3, which would be as good as West Virginia could hope for.
What’s the worst-case realistic scenario as a No. 2? Tallahassee, no question. Going to Austin or Athens would be worse, but West Virginia’s not falling that far. The NCAA seems likely to send Florida to its ACC rival, which wouldn’t be a good opening game for West Virginia. And if you win that game? Jamie Arnold’s still there as the Seminoles’ ace.
All of that’s a long way of saying that you don’t want to find out what happens if West Virginia baseball doesn’t host. The Mountaineers need to take care of business and get to the No. 1 line.
