Well, that didn’t go very well for the Mountaineers, did it?
The worst-case scenario for West Virginia baseball almost came to pass last weekend, and would have if not for some help from Oklahoma State. Fortunately for the Mountaineers, the Cowboys are playing for their NCAA tournament lives and swept Arizona State. Instead of winning the league, which the Sun Devils could have done, Arizona State’s playing on Wednesday in Arlington as the No. 5 seed.
Related: Mountaineers Swept By Kansas
But while the Big 12 banner will look nice in Morgantown, it’s small comfort right now. The Mountaineers crashed down the stretch, winning just one of their final seven games. And given who the final opponent was, it’s hard to see the Mountaineers feeling good about their regular season title right now. Despite what the Big 12 standings say, last weekend in Morgantown showed that Kansas is currently the better team — and the Mountaineers know it.
The good news is that West Virginia has the Big 12 tournament to get itself right and get some momentum. And if they get the right matchup, this could be a springboard to NCAA success. Here’s what West Virginia baseball needs in Arlington.
Read more: What West Virginia Baseball Needs in Arlington
West Virginia Baseball Needs to Prove Itself
The Big 12 schedule really didn’t test the Mountaineers until the final two weeks of the season. And West Virginia really didn’t handle things very well. Here’s a look at how each team in the top six did against the other five members of the top half of the tournament:
Arizona: 7-3
Arizona State: 5-4
Kansas: 7-6
Kansas State: 2-4
TCU: 5-4
West Virginia: 2-7
If you’ve done the math, you know that means the Mountaineers went 17-2 against the bottom eight teams in the league. And while that leads to a good-looking record, it doesn’t mean West Virginia is ready to compete with a national seed. The recent 1-5 mark against the Kansas schools says as much.
So the biggest thing West Virginia baseball needs in Arlington is a run to the semifinals or further. The Mountaineers have to prove to themselves that they can handle good competition. The semifinals would probably mean Arizona or Arizona State, and if it’s the Wildcats, that means one of Smith Bailey or Owen Kramkowski.
Related: What If West Virginia Baseball Doesn’t Host?
If it’s ASU, West Virginia might miss both of Jack Martinez and Ben Jacobs (although the Sun Devils could try a bullpen game against BYU). But they’d still have to handle the powerful ASU lineup. Either way, beating one of the Arizona schools would show WVU can handle good opponents.
West Virginia Baseball Needs to Build Confidence
Before getting to the semifinals, the Mountaineers have to handle Cincinnati or Texas Tech. Both are beatable, as WVU went 5-1 against them. But the 1 is a concern, because that came with Griffin Kirn on the mound in Morgantown.
Texas Tech knows it can take on Kirn and win, and Cincinnati believes the same. The Bearcats worked out a no-decision against Kirn; their bullpen simply couldn’t hold off the Mountaineers. And both will be playing for their lives, as Texas Tech must win the Big 12 tournament to make the NCAAs and Cincinnati probably needs a semifinal to qualify.
Related: Could West Virginia Host a Regional?
When you finish the way the Mountaineers did, confidence can be a big issue. West Virginia cannot afford to go into the NCAAs sitting at 1-7 in its final eight games. If that happens, it’s going to be next to impossible for the Mountaineers to handle both a No. 3 and a No. 1 seed.
Even if West Virginia bows out in the semifinals, getting there would help stop the bleeding. The Mountaineers need to get a quarterfinal win to rebuild confidence.
West Virginia Needs a Big Weekend to Have Any Chance to Host
If we’re being completely honest, the hosting dream is probably dead. The Mountaineers don’t currently have the RPI to host, and they’ve gotten passed by some lower-conference schools. The latest RPI numbers have the Mountaineers looking up at UC Irvine, Southern Mississippi, Texas-San Antonio and Dallas Baptist.
West Virginia has an RPI of 28, which suggests the Mountaineers are closer to the No. 3 line than they are to hosting. By playing a schedule intended to build confidence over a resume, the Mountaineers left themselves no wiggle room in case of Big 12 struggles. Obviously, you’d rather be West Virginia than Texas Tech, which buried itself in the nonconference, but the Mountaineers need more balance next year.
Related: West Virginia Baseball Next Steps
But for the time being, the concern is how the Mountaineers can give themselves a chance to host. And to make that happen, they need to be thinking tournament championship.
Realistically, only one team from the Big 12 is probably going to get a chance to host a regional. The SEC has already secured most of the hosting spots, and given how often upsets happen in Hoover, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the SEC grab another hosting slot. The ACC probably has hosting slots secured for North Carolina, Clemson and Florida State, and both Oregon powers are likely to host.
Related: West Virginia in the Big 12 Tournament
That leaves only two or three spots available for somebody to snag. The Big 12 tournament champion is probably going to get one, given that it’s likely to take two wins over NCAA-level competition to claim the title. The Mountaineers have the talent to make a run to the title; it’s just a matter of if they play to that level.
West Virginia Baseball Needs to Set Itself Up For Next Week
The biggest thing West Virginia baseball needs in Arlington is to make sure it’s ready for wherever it goes. The rotation needs to be set up, the bullpen needs to be healthy and the hitters have to build confidence.
A tournament title would be great, and so would a chance to host the regional round. But the biggest thing for WVU is to give itself a chance to win the regional round. And that means coming out of Arlington healthy and confident.
