That was quite the weekend, to say the least.
As far as which series affect West Virginia baseball in the Big 12, it didn’t get much bigger than Kansas getting swept. The Jayhawks now need help to have any chance to win the title from the Mountaineers in the final weekend of the year.
But West Virginia is in control of its own fate as far as winning the league. The Mountaineers’ bigger concern is whether they’re going to get a chance to host a regional. As we’ve covered in these spaces before, it’s going to be very close.
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The Mountaineers sit No. 12 in the national rankings. They sit 20th in the RPI. Merge those together, and you’ve got a landing spot of No. 16, the last regional host. So that means everything above and around the Mountaineers is going to matter over the final three weeks.
But which series affect West Virginia baseball the most? Here’s a look at where WVU fans should scoreboard watch beyond the Big 12.
Read more: Which Series Affect West Virginia Baseball?
Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee
Realistically, this could become a problem for the Mountaineers. West Virginia wants to see one of these teams sweep. Ideally, that would be the Commodores. Vanderbilt has a much stronger RPI and Tennessee has been struggling lately. With a Vandy sweep, the Volunteers could fall below the Mountaineers.
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Two problems exist with that possibility. First, this series is being played in Knoxville. Vandy might win one or two games, but a three-game road sweep seems a little unlikely. Second, West Virginia doesn’t want Tennessee to fall too far. The Vols are, after all, the defending national champions. If there’s one thing the Mountaineers don’t want if they get to host, it’s to see Tennessee as their No. 2 seed. The Mountaineers’ ideal scenario would see them pass Tennessee, with the Vols staying on the No. 1 line.
UC Irvine at Cal State Bakersfield
This is a bonus for the Mountaineers. This series can’t do anything to help the Anteaters because Cal State Bakersfield is a 15-32 landmine. Any loss that UC Irvine takes in this series would do wonders for WVU.
Related: What If West Virginia Doesn’t Host?
That said, the Roadrunners are 15-32 for a reason. Looking for help here isn’t likely to be productive. The Mountaineers should expect a sweep and consider anything less to be a gift.
Washington at Oregon
Know what West Virginia didn’t need? Four consecutive Oregon wins over Oregon State. The Ducks swept the Beavers, and while some think that might knock Oregon State out of a hosting spot, I’m not buying that yet. Oregon is West Virginia’s biggest rival for a hosting spot right now, and the Ducks are surging.
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Worse, the NCAA probably wants to see the Ducks host. It’s a lot more cost effective for the NCAA if it has regionals in Eugene, Corvallis and two in Los Angeles than to only have three or even two regionals west of Texas. So West Virginia has to make the case clear, so that there’s no way the committee can choose the Ducks to host over them.
Oregon losing a game or two to Washington would help. The Ducks did drop one of three at Michigan State, a much weaker team than the Huskies. So this task is doable.
NC State at North Carolina
NC State had been a red-clad supernova when it swept Clemson. But now it heads to Chapel Hill, and the Wolfpack just got swept by Miami. Losing two out of three to the Mountaineers’ old friends from North Carolina could knock State out of the hosting race.
The Tar Heels’ success wouldn’t harm the Mountaineers in the slightest. Carolina is sitting in the top 10 of the RPI and looks to be the ACC’s No. 2 or 3 team behind Florida State and possibly Clemson. The Heels will host a regional.
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If West Virginia is trying to catch North Carolina, either the Heels have imploded completely, or the Mountaineers no longer have to worry about hosting. So West Virginia would love a sweep here.
Oklahoma at Kentucky
The Sooners are very much in the mix to host a regional. Kentucky can help prevent that from happening by winning this series. The Wildcats are a strong bet to make the field, but the NCAA tournament isn’t coming to Lexington this season. At 25-20, Kentucky hasn’t done enough to make it to the top 16.
So a Kentucky series victory can only help West Virginia. There’s also a practical reason to root for the Wildcats: you’d rather not see Kentucky as your No. 3 seed. If the Wildcats get to the No. 2 line — possible — that increases the chance that you’d see a small-conference champion as your No. 3 seed. If Kentucky’s your No. 3 seed, you’ve probably landed a good ACC opponent as your No. 2. So the Mountaineers want to see Kentucky have a strong weekend.
Mississippi at Mississippi State
Baseball’s version of the Egg Bowl has real consequences for West Virginia. Mississippi State is a desperate team, and that’s good news for the Mountaineers. West Virginia does not want to see Ole Miss go into its final series with Auburn with momentum.
The Tigers are a hosting lock, which means the Rebels will get three golden opportunities in Oxford to pad their resume in the final weekend. And no disrespect to Kansas, but the Jayhawks cannot match the opportunity the Tigers offer. Auburn’s ranked fourth; Kansas sits in the 30s. So if the Rebels and the Mountaineers go into the final weekend even and Ole Miss matches WVU’s result, the Mountaineers will lose that comparison.
The best way to pull ahead is to have a strong weekend at Kansas State and get some help from Mississippi State. If the Bulldogs win this series and the Mountaineers play well in Manhattan, West Virginia can probably stay ahead of the Rebels by matching their final weekend’s result.
