WVU Football might be in for its biggest challenge of the season thus far Saturday.
The Mountaineers will travel to Fort Worth, Texas, to face TCU in its fifth Big 12 matchup of the season. Read more: Can the Mountaineer offense keep up with TCU’s top-three defense?
When looking at its record, the Horned Frogs do not look like the most intimidating team, sitting at 3-3 overall and 1-2 in Big 12 play. However, TCU bolsters the third-best defense in the FBS in terms of points allowed this season and is the best among Power 4 teams.
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The WVU offense has been hot this season, but it has not yet seen a defense close to this caliber.
Both the Mountaineers and the Horned Frogs are aiming for their second conference win this season. If the struggling WVU defense allows TCU’s offense to gain momentum, the remainder of its season could be in jeopardy.
A similar issue
WVU and TCU have ultimately fallen short this season due to a similar problem: one side of the ball is great while the other has been disappointing.
For WVU, it currently has the 19th-best scoring offense in FBS while its defense averages the ninth-most points allowed per game.
TCU’s defense averages the third-fewest points per game while its scoring offense is 95th.
Overall, both teams have proven that it does not matter how good one side of the ball is; without balance, winning games is difficult.
The Mountaineers and Horned Frogs both had impressive performances in non-conference play, but both teams’ lone conference wins were narrow. WVU defeated Cincinnati in a high-scoring affair 45-42, while TCU defeated Baylor in a low-scoring contest 17-6.
Related: Hawkins delivers, Cassidy finishes in WVU’s wild Homecoming win over Cincinnati
When looking at how fans react on social media, it is clear from both sides that the frustration of the shortcomings outweighs the excitement of the elite level of play one side brings.
Come Saturday, only one team can come out on top. One struggling side is going to have to outperform the other to make the difference in the contest.
TCU’s defense
Only two teams are allowing fewer points per game than TCU. New Mexico is No. 1 with 10.50 while North Dakota St. is second with 11.29. TCU averages 12.17.
Throughout its six games this season, the Horned Frogs have held three of its opponents to a single-digit score. The most points it allowed were 21 to UCF.
Even the now No. 2-ranked team in the nation, BYU, played a close game with TCU. It only defeated TCU 17-10.
Overall, TCU has had a solid defensive line and linebacker core that has made big stops.
Koron Hayward has put up 4.5 sacks this season, losing opponents 34 yards. Ansel Din-Mbuh and CJ Woodfork have also gotten two sacks a piece.
Hudson Hooper leads the team in tackles this season with 32 total.
The Horned Frogs have also forced seven fumbles this season and grabbed three interceptions.
Whether it is an opponent that is pass- or rush-heavy, TCU has ranked highly in stopping both. It averages 92 rushing yards (T-15th) and 172.2 passing yards (23rd) allowed per game.
The Horned Frogs are also the sixth best at stopping first downs this season, only allowing 93.
How the Mountaineer offense stacks up
TCU’s defense only allowing opponents an average of 92 yards per game is scary for the Mountaineers. While WVU quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. has shown potential as a passer, the rushing game has been the premier aspect of the offense.
WVU currently has the fifth-best rushing offense in the FBS, averaging 272.4 rushing yards per game. Its passing offense is ranked 77th as it puts up an average of 224.7 passing yards per game.
While WVU’s rushing offense is the best TCU will face this season so far, the Mountaineers cannot get overly confident that it will overcome the Horned Frog defense.
BYU currently sits as the 25th best rushing offense in the FBS, averaging 206.7 rushing yards per game. TCU held it to just 154 rushing yards. BYU also averages 214.5 passing yards per game, but TCU only allowed it 62.
Outside of BYU, TCU has only allowed 100+ rushing yards to one other team, Arkansas State. It held both Baylor and UCF to 33 yards, while Grambling State only had 20.
WVU’s offense certainly holds the potential to have one of the best rushing performances against TCU this season, but it is hard to count the Horned Frogs out.
What about the Mountaineer defense?
As mentioned, the TCU offense has not been great this season. It only averages 110 rushing yards per game, but it is 20th in passing yards per game with an average of 282.3.
Where things get scary for the Mountaineers is that it averages giving up 173.7 rushing yards per game and an FBS-worst 310.1 passing yards per game.
While TCU is falling short of what WVU usually gives up, it opens the door for the Horned Frogs to see one of its best offensive performances of the season if the Mountaineer defense plays like it has so far this season.
Since TCU’s strong point on offense is the passing game, the Mountaineers absolutely can not afford to let quarterback Jaden Craig have a good day.
Craig has thrown five interceptions this season, but WVU’s defense collectively has only had four picks.
Conclusion
Stopping the passing game should be WVU’s No. 1 priority Saturday. Its second priority should be establishing a passing game of its own.
TCU should expect to see the elite rushing game that WVU has utilized all season, but not be surprised if Hawkins brings over the passing game he showed against Cincinnati.
Related: WVU proved me wrong. Everything I learned from the stands of MPS
Overall, TCU has been a threat at stopping both rushing and passing, but WVU’s offense is one of the best it will see, just as TCU’s defense is the best the Mountaineers have seen.
If WVU comes out on top, it will be one game away from bowl eligibility with a 5-3 record.
It was said this past week that the Cincinnati game was a must-win game for the Mountaineers. That does not change this week, as a win over TCU is just as important.
After TCU, three of WVU’s last four opponents are currently ranked top 15 nationally. A loss against TCU would force it to win at least one of those games and defeat Kansas to go bowling.
While the goal will always be to win every game, a win over TCU ultimately gives WVU the best fighting chance to keep its season alive.
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